Misfiring Manchester United striker Robin van Persie has admitted he faces an uncertain future – an eye-catching confession from a 31-year-old who scored the most famous goal of his career in 2014 but begins 2015 with growing doubts over his form and fitness.
The facts are these: Van Persie has 18 months left on his contract at Old Trafford and has not been asked to hold any discussions about a new one. He is scoring a goal every 206.9 minutes in the Premier League this season, compared to 120.1 minutes when he won the league for Sir Alex Ferguson in 2013 after a controversial move from Arsenal.
What happens next for RVP will be fascinating. To help him along, we lay down the five vastly-differing potential scenarios.
The statistics suggest the best is behind Robin van Persie. Eight goals in 20 league games this season would satisfy some strikers, but not a player who scored 44 goals in all competitions for club and country in 2011-12 and followed up with 26 Premier League goals when United won the title two seasons ago.
And yet, Van Persie is a player you'd be foolish to write off completely. We have been here before, at Arsenal he suffered 27 injuries in eight years – many connected with his problematic knee – and was written off as a very top player until he hit a purple patch of consistency from the early months of 2011 and never looked back. Sir Alex Ferguson broke his lifetime's rule of not signing older players to pay Arsenal £24million for a striker pushing towards 30 and RVP paid him back with goal after goal.
Louis van Gaal, his former Holland coach, has praised van Persie's intelligence and ability to create space for team-mates which is important in a squad packed with so many attacking stars. The goals are the one thing missing from his game but if RVP can rediscover his scoring touch – and his match-winning double at Southampton six weeks ago suggests he still has the knack – United may be persuaded to the negotiating table with an offer that maintains his £200,000-a-week pay packet. Remember, it wouldn't cost them a transfer fee, and buying the next Van Persie would be very expensive.
2: RVP AND UNITED AGREE TO RUN HIS CONTRACT DOWN AND HE MOVES ON
The smart money is on this scenario happening. Van Persie will be just a couple of months off turning 33 when his current contract comes to an end in June 2016 and with United seemingly committed to finding the next batch of Galacticos, it is hard to see how an ageing centre forward with a strong sense of self-worth will fit in.
At the same time, Van Persie offers enough to make him worth keeping for the duration of his current deal. He has shown himself comfortable on the big stage at United and he has the versatility of playing as No 9 or No 10 to play with Wayne Rooney, Falcao or James Wilson.
He is getting more injuries – ankle and knee problems this season have caused him to miss matches – and the evidence of your own eyes would suggest he isn't as mobile as the Van Persie of old. But his spectacular diving header for Holland against Spain at the World Cup last summer indicates he is still capable of producing magic few can replicate, which is why United won't ideally be in a hurry to terminate his deal early. Van Persie on a Bosman in 18 months would be attractive to a number of Champions League clubs and affordable to Dutch clubs if he wanted to return home.
3: VAN GAAL GETS FRUSTRATED AND DECIDES RVP SHOULD LEAVE IN THE SUMMER
Van Gaal has a lot of jigsaw pieces to fit in at Old Trafford. When he arrived in the summer, it was assumed his compatriot Van Persie would be top dog and possibly even the club's new captain, but that hasn't happened. Wayne Rooney has been chosen as the team's leader and it's lucky for RVP that Falcao hasn't hit the ground running in English football, otherwise his first-team place might have been in more jeopardy.
So far, the United manager has tried all kind of mind games to get the best out of Van Persie, praising him some weeks, then demanding more. But if Van Gaal wants to buy Falcao on a permanent basis – the Colombian did miss the second half of last season through injury and so should improve over the next few months – cuts may need to be made elsewhere.
Van Persie is one of the big earners and if United want to splash out on the likes of Mats Hummels and maybe even Gareth Bale, even they can't afford to pay everyone £10m a year. Van Gaal has often said he treats players on their performances, not reputation, and took off Van Persie during matches at the World Cup. RVP has scored only once in his last six games, and missed a good chance against League Two Cambridge in the FA Cup last week.
4: RVP BECOMES FRUSTRATED AND DECIDES HE SHOULD LEAVE IN THE SUMMER
Like a lot of Dutch players, Van Persie intelligent, opinionated and not shy to come forward with what he wants and expects in his career. Even under Sir Alex Ferguson, he was confident enough to say publicly he didn't like team rotation and felt he played better when he played consecutive matches to establish a rhythm in his game.
Ferguson was very clever and never left Van Persie out even when he went a few games without scoring. He understood the striker was good enough to be treated as an exception, as he had done years previously with Eric Cantona.
The trouble is Van Persie is no longer good enough to be treated differently to anyone else. Besides his slump in goalscoring, he is CREDITED with only two Premier League assists this season. If Falcao improves and Van Gaal wants to give Wilson more of a chance, Van Persie will not be an automatic starter in every game, and that might be something the player finds difficult to handle. In the summer, he will have just a year left on his contract. He managed to extricate himself from Arsenal in similar circumstances.
5: RVP GRACIOUSLY ACCEPTS A DOWNGRADE FROM A-LIST TO B-LIST AND BECOMES A LONG-TERM UNITED CLUB MAN
Manchester United holds a special allure to players. Whereas Steven Gerrard has decided to leave Liverpool rather than accept a pay cut and more infrequent appearances to stay, Ryan Giggs and Gary Neville did exactly that in their later days.
Both men understood in their thirties they could no longer be the first names on the team sheet, but they signed contracts that reflected that, because they wanted to stay.
Van Persie isn't homegrown of course but there is evidence he and his family have settled in the north west where his children attend school with the offspring of many other United players and other footballers; Wayne Rooney, Phil Jagielka and Fabrice Muamba – whom RVP knew at Arsenal – among them.
There is a scenario where RVP will be welcomed to stay at Old Trafford beyond his current deal provided he is happy to be a squad player rather than the main man and maybe be paid £100,000-a-week rather than 200,000.
From the club's point of view, to have someone of Van Persie's experience to help guide the younger players would be ideal. Ferguson signed Michael Owen on a free towards the end of his career, Owen didn't play much, but the United manage
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